Monte Carlo projection for the rest of the season: 8 remaining Grands Prix plus the Singapore sprint. Pace comes from each driver's actual finishing-position distribution through round 15 (mechanical DNFs excluded from that pace read); reliability is set manually below as a number of DNFs out of all 9 remaining events, with the specific event(s) randomized per simulation. Not a prediction — a range of plausible outcomes if current form holds.
DNFs in the remaining 8 rounds
Set how many of the remaining 9 events (8 Grands Prix + the Singapore sprint) each driver fails to finish. Which specific event(s) each DNF lands on is randomized fresh in every simulated season.
Ready — click run.
Championship win probability
Projected final points (5th–95th percentile range)
Driver
Now
Median
Low (5%)
High (95%)
Ranks among these 8 drivers only. Grands Prix use standard race points (25–4 for 1st–8th); the Singapore sprint uses sprint points (8–1 for 1st–8th), using the same pace weighting as a normal round.
Final points — distribution across all simulated seasons
Each curve is one driver's spread of possible final totals. Overlap between two curves is a rough visual read on how contested that gap still is — heavy overlap means the sim sees the outcome as a toss-up.